One month until caucuses

Herman's gone.  Current flavor of the month Newt has taken a sizeable lead.  Inevitable Mitt and Crazy Uncle Ron are battling it out for 2nd.  If the caucuses were today, Newt would be the winner, but it remains to be seen if he will see that same success a month from now.

The 4th place battle is clearly that, a battle for 4th place.  Santorum seems to have caught up with Perry and Bachmann fo the most part.

Huntsman is as hopeless as ever.

Cain dropped out with an average of 6.9.  It's unlikely that his exit will make much of a difference at all at this point.

New Hampshire Primary 11/18

Two New Hampshire primary polls released today.  Gingrich sneaks into 2nd but Romney still holds his huge lead of over 20 points.

GOP National Update (11/22)

Updated with two new polls.  I also took the averages and gave the graph including tomorrows dropout of the old Washington Post/ABC poll, so it's actually 1 day in the future.

Romney is only .1 % above Gingrich now, and Gingrich still appears to be rising.  Note that my averages lag about 10 days due to the nature of them being a 20 day moving average.  (If Gingrich's peak on my graph is 11/25, it would actually mean that it happened about 10 days earlier on 11/15).

It also appears likely that Paul may have overtaken Perry already, assuming the trend keeps up.

New Hampshire Primary 11/12

There are only two polls which meet my standards to be used for November 1-November 18 averages in New Hampshire.

The CNN Poll is expired, so the only fair and balanced poll to go by is the Bloomberg one.  I'm not going to include a graph because only two polls are involved thus far and it doesn't really help to gain an understanding of the trends.

There is a new Magellan Strategies poll out which shows Gingrich at 26%, but it is Republican affiliated, so it is not counted.  It still seems reasonable that Gingrich is higher than 11% though.

Iowa Caucus 11/12

I figured I'd post this early because I'm a nice guy.

There were so many bad polls to wade through for Iowa.  We Ask America seemed a bit fishy, but they did fit the criteria.  Insider Advantage refuses to poll Santorum, so they were eliminated.  I really don't get why you wouldn't include Santorum in your poll.  Maybe they googled Santorum?

Current semi-weighted averages:
Cain: 22.6
Romney: 17.4
Paul: 16.0
Gingrich: 11.3
Bachmann: 8.0
Perry: 6.5
Santorum: 3.9
Huntsman: 0.9

Sorry Pew Research

Here's the link to their slanted poll:

http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-questionnaires/11-17-11%20Politics%20topline%20for%20release.pdf

They polled for approval of Romney, Perry, Gingrich, and Cain BEFORE asking for GOP nomination.

Therefore, this poll is rejected due to it being slanted towards Romney, Perry, Gingrich, and Cain, as well as slanted against Bachmann, Huntsman, Paul, and Santorum.

Early state primaries coming soon

If I get 25 followers I'll start doing Iowa as well.  50, I'll do New Hampshire.  100 I'll do South Carolina and Florida.

I just want to make sure there's a demand for fair and balanced poll averages and graphs before I put hours of effort in.